Now that the NFL draft is complete a person like myself wages a full out attack on fantasy rankings. I have scaled back my number of leagues the past couple years and I now focus specifically on my PPR leagues so any rankings you see moving forward are specific to that scoring format.
The draft brought us many things this year. We got another RB that was drafted too early by an NFL team and will subsequently be over drafted in fantasy leagues and not live up to the hype. On a side not I was one of 3 people in the world that said the Texans should not and would not draft Reggie Bush but we'll save that pat on the back for another day. Today we are going to explore the first two rounds of the fantasy world and do a mock draft. Mock drafts are posh and yours truly wants to jump on the bandwagon before it gets too full. What I won't do is become some pompous ass like Kiper and McShay become when they parade around on ESPN like they have any clue as to what is going to happen. Do you think one year they will just realize that a shit load of trades will occur and realize that their mock drafts are total crap? No, instead I will look at each slot like that is my slot and my team that I am building. As a disclaimer, even though no one is actually reading this, I am higher on drafting WR than most others because they are harder to find than RBs. Anyone that drafted TO, Boldin, Andre Johnson or Randy Moss and then picked up Ryan Grant or Ernest Graham can attest to that point. So here we go.
ROUND ONE:
1) Steven Jackson - WHAT??? I have to be kidding right. Nope. LT is one more boo boo away from dancing like Shaun Alexander. I love LT but I think this year he relinquishes the title of best RB in fantasy football. Linehan is in serious trouble so if you were in his shoes wouldn't you ride your horse? prediction(guess) - 2100 total yards, 18 TDs, 61 receptions
2) Adrian Peterson - Now I must be crazy. Where the fu(k is LT? Control yourself, he's coming. All day is ready for the big stage. As a timeshare last year he went absolutely bananas. Only 10 guys attacking the line of scrimmage at the end of the year could slow him down. I don't see the Vikings aerial assault breaking any records but it should be improved enough to loosen up defenses. Besides, the Vikings have built a pretty good looking defense on paper and teams like that love to control the clock and the ball. prediction 1900 total yards, 20 TDs, 25 receptions
3) Brian Westbrook - Now you think I am just trying to be ridiculous. Maybe, but I had Westy in my PPR league last year and guess who led all scorers in avg PPG? Not Brady, not Moss, but Westy. I used to have him on my do not draft list and lost my mind when he went third overall last year. But when I decided it was time to sell high on Ronnie Brown, Westy became my target and the apple of my eye. He is a PPR machine and I think he slows down a bit but he still will produce more points that LT. Prediction 1900 yards, 14 TDs, 70 receptions
4) LT - If you had the fourth pick in your draft and LT fell to you I would guess you would have to tuck your semi under your belt. LT is still a huge force in fantasy but we have all seen what happens when an elite RB gets his first taste of injury and starts to become soft. The way he was sulking on the bench in the playoffs sent off so many alarms I would consider trading out of this spot if I could. IF Tomlinson is still the same he will help carry your team to many victories. If he is only half of himself you'll wish you drafted the next guy. Prediction - 1700 yards, 15TDs, 40 receptions
5) LJ - I'm serious. Pull the trigger. If you think Jamaal Charles is an issue you're probably a UT grad. Herm Edwards was brought in to win. Unfortunately half the O-lone retired and he ended up with no QB. Much like Linehan, Edwards will turn to the one weapon he has. With the emergence of Bowe on the outside, teams will have to at least consider the threat of pass. The Chiefs had a good draft and I don't think Albert will pay off as quickly as Thomas did for Cleveland, but he will definitely help. LJ was worn down two years ago, he is fresh after last year. I see big numbers from him once again...even though I would hate to have to draft him because I think he is a d-bag. Prediction - 1800 yds, 16 TDs, 60 receptions (yes, that is more points than LT)
6) Joseph Addai - Remember when Peyton Manning had the TD record? So does he. His gigantic ego is the only thing keeping Joey from a monster year. Manning will throw red zone TD after red zone TD because he is worried people think Brady is better than him. Since most of those red zone TDs will not be thrown to Addai, his TD numbers will suffer like Edge's did last time Peyton never called a running play. And as the video from his sideline meltdown proves, Peyton doesn't know how to call running plays. Prediction - 1800 yds, 14 TDs, 38 receptions.
7) Randy Moss - He will not duplicate last year but the Patriots are angry and they will still air it out quite a bit to exact their revenge. Teams can focus on Moss all they want, the Patriots will show a little more balance this year and as Pats fan I think the other side of the field is better off with Gaffney and a healthy Chad Jackson. Stallworth just disappeared too many times and with Randy getting double and triple coverage, someone besides Welker has to get open. Randy wants to show people that he's still got it and that he's not ready to watch trucks race on a permanent basis yet. prediction - 1600 yds, 17 TDS, 90 receptions
8) Peyton Manning - There are no RBs or WRs I like in this spot so I am going to take the guy out to prove he is still the best. yeah, Harrison is a shadow of himself but what better way for Manning to prove superior to Brady than to have a huge year without his boy Marvin doing a majority of the damage. I don't see 50TDs, but 40 is a definite possibility. Prediction - 4400 yds, 41 TDs (one rushing)
9) Tom Brady - 50 TDs??? Not gonna happen. I see him in the high 30s this time around. The guy still has Moss and Welker, but it's a copy cat league and with the atrocious play of the o-line in the Superbowl, teams will bring the pressure. This is where the health of Maroney becomes key as the Pats will need more balance this year. Regardless, this guy tells Chuck Norris what to do. Prediction 4000 yds, 38 TDs, 1 knocked up super-model, 3 keys to the city, 4 magazine covers, 4th SB ring.
10) Frank Gore - Before you laugh...or cry, depending on if you drafted Gore early last year, remember that in PPR format, he was pretty darn good in the second half of the season. I should know, I drafted him last year and he was a borderline start most of the time. But if last year taught me anything, it's that PPR is a different animal and points in fantasy are different than being an all-pro. Prediction 1300 yds, 11 TDs, 50 receptions
ROUND TWO:
11) Reggie Wayne - It is going to be a long time before I get to pick again and the WR core remaining when it snakes back to me will not hold any elite WRs. I like to build my team on being strong at every position and with Peyton throwing more TDs this year, Wayne will assume the role that Harrison played so nicely for many years. Prediction - 1500 yds, 17 TDs, 95 receptions.
12) Braylon Edwards - Still not a big fan of the RBs so in this slot I will try a do the opposite approach. The run of WRs should happen before it gets back to me so I take the guy with the biggest chance to duplicate and exceed last years numbers. Prediction - 1300 yds, 16TDs, 90 receptions.
13) Marshawn Lynch - I hate myself for this pick but I wanted a RB and all the others just make me feel gross. Will I look back at the end of the year and regret this pick? Maybe, but I can't take Portis or Barber here because they will both split carries or get hurt. It's Lynch's job period. prediction - 1450 yds, 13TDs, 35 receptions.
14) Ryan Grant - It pains me to have a Packer on my team but I had to get a RB because they are about to drop off significantly soon. He probably won't repeat last year but I can expect good numbers and he fits nicely next to Randy. prediction - 1500 yds, 13 TDs, 30 receptions.
15) Andre Johnson - I'm glad Wayne was already taken because I didn't wants to go with teammates with my first two picks. When he's healthy, Johnson is one of the best there is. I think this year he plays all 16 games and goes huge. I am stoked that he is my #1 guy and I want to rub it in the face of the people laughing that I didn't take the ancient Owens. prediction - 1300 yds, 15 TDs, 95 receptions
16) Willis McGahee - I had intended on taking a WR but when McGahee was still on the board I decided to cross my fingers that I get one of my targets on the way back. When a RB has a job all to himself that makes a huge difference. prediction - 1600 yds, 12 TDs, 25 receptions.
17) Terrell Owens - When LT fell to #4 I was floored. That 4 WRs went before TO shocked me too. Yeah, I may be tempting the Gods with this pick but if you told me my team was anchored by LT and TO I would be pretty damn happy. Incidentally, the guy that got 2nd last year had these two. prediction - 1300 yds, 14 TDs, 80 receptions
18) Clinton Portis - I don't think Portis will get back to me in the third but i think I will still get one of my WRs so that made this pick pretty simple. yes he has injury issues so I may need to reach for Betts later. 1400 yds, 12 TDs, 25 receptions
19) Larry Fitzgerald - It was Fitz or Smith and I ultimately went with the red zone guy. I know that the QB situation in AZ in tricky but Fitz has excelled no matter who is under center. if Leinart wins the job, he tends to target Fitz more than Boldin. Prediction 1100 yds, 16 TDs, 80 receptions.
20) Marion Barber - Having Jackson and two straight picks gives me flexibility. i thought about two WRs here but Marion is solid and in a contract year. Felix Jones may steal some carries but when they reach the 20s, no one has been better than Marion the past few years. Prediction - 1100 yds, 16TDs, 25 receptions.
Rounds 3-4 will be coming soon.
Friday, May 9, 2008
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4 comments:
Oh I hope I draft right after you.
That's what you thought last year too. How many times has the team I drafted resembled the team I won the championship with? It's all about trades me boy.
Som epicks are great some not so good but hey that's fantasy football. Would I change anything? No, if we could use hindsight for our fantasy drafts everyone would be an expert. hell, even Matthew Berry is considered an expert.
Wow, that sure would have been a high scoring year if those were accurate. 1st time in here in 3 years. Those TD projections were ridonculous.
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